Turkey's landmark elections spell yet more misery for millions of Syrian refugees
Ankara is set to reverse more than a decade of refugee-positive policies to force Syrian asylum seekers back to their war-torn homeland
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The people of Turkey head to the polls this weekend to cast their votes in hotly anticipated presidential elections, with incumbent president Recep Tayyip Erdogan's 20-year grip on power looking shakier than ever.
With the Turkish economy reeling from brutal inflation and millions of people having lost their livelihoods after this year's devastating earthquake, 69-year-old Erdogan faces a staunch challenge to get re-elected.
But there is a considerable portion of Turkey’s population wishing the elections would never come.
Turkey has the greatest refugee population of any country in the world at more than 4 million.
But somewhere between 3.5 and 3.7 million of those are Syrians who had no choice but to flee across the border amid their native land's devastating civil war, which still rages to this day.
For years, Turkey welcomed war-stricken Syrians with open arms.
The 800-mile land border between the two territories largely remained open and any Syrian fleeing the conflict was granted temporary protection status - even those without documentation.
But the pending elections likely spell yet more misery for Syrian asylum seekers forced to abandon their home soil, because every opposition candidate in the presidential race is determined to expel them back across the border.
And even Erdogan, who personally oversaw the introduction of Turkey's refugee-positive policies of the past decade, has hardened his stance on Syrian asylum seekers since 2022 as of late amid rising public discontent.
Why has public opinion in Turkey soured towards Syrian refugees?
Turkey is no longer the welcoming place it once was, and Syria's fleeing citizens are increasingly being shown the cold shoulder.
In recent years Turks have faced soaring costs amid skyrocketing inflation which greatly diminished their purchasing power and quality of life after a period of untenable economic growth.
This was in no small part fuelled by the Turkish central bank's refusal to raise interest rates as part of Erdogan's widely criticised monetary policy.
Then in February this year, much of Turkey's poorer southeastern regions were demolished by a pair of huge earthquakes which killed more than 50,000 and displaced untold numbers of people.
The quakes brought just as much misery and devastation to Syrians, as most of the refugees in Turkey populate those badly-hit southeastern regions.
Syrians still living in the north of their homeland were also battered by the earthquake in equal measure.
But the fallout has meant that Turks facing a difficult path are now far less willing now than ever before to share resources with those considered outsiders.
Who is opposing Erdogan and what are their plans for refugees?
Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the leader of the Republican People's Party - CHP - is a long-suffering opponent of Erdogan.
The 74-year-old has led his party since 2010 and has lost out to Erdogan in every election thus far - but he now commands an alliance of six parties intent on ending the president’s reign and is his only real threat.
Kilicdaroglu has built his election campaign around the offer of an alternative to Erdogan, who many Turks feel has simply been in power too long.
He has promised to curb the soaring inflation brought about by Erdogan's government and place greater respect on the rule of law.
But Kilicdaroglu's vision of a more prosperous, democratic and just Turkey has no room for Syrian refugees.
Under his rule, Ankara would seek to repatriate Syrians within two years by building a network of homes, schools and other amenities in the north of the country close to the Turkish border, partly funded by the EU.
But Syria is still locked in the throes of civil war, and much of the north's infrastructure that wasn't already battered by bombing and fighting has since suffered considerable damage in the quakes.
Two other opposition candidates include Muharrem Ince, leader of the Homeland Party and a former CHP deputy leader, and Sinan Ogan, the right-wing nationalist leader of a three-party conglomerate known as the Ancestral Alliance.
Ince wants to see the return of secularism in Turkey and has pledged to expel Syrian migrants from the country - but on Thursday he dropped out of the presidential race.
Ogan meanwhile has taken an even harder stance on refugees of all backgrounds, threatening to deport them by force if necessary - but is unlikely to receive a big share of the vote.
What if Erdogan wins?
Given the manifestos set forth by the alternatives, most Syrians are likely keeping their fingers crossed that the historically welcoming Erdogan retains his grip on power.
But even then their prospects look bleak.
Erdogan made somewhat of an about-turn in his attitudes to the nation's vast refugee population in 2022, when he declared intentions to eventually send up to one million Syrians back across the border.
Roughly 50,000 refugees have since been deported - far less than Erdogan's initial targets - but Ankara is only going to increase its expulsion operations irrespective of who ends up in power.
And Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's efforts to normalise relations with his neighbours means cross-border policies to repatriate Syrians are ever more likely to form.
First, Syria was accepted back into the Arab League earlier this month after a 12-year hiatus - a significant step forward for Damascus given that the civil war is far from over.
Then both Ankara and Damascus agreed this past week to create a 'roadmap' to improve their strained ties, despite Turkey's enduring support for Syrian rebels in the country's north.
Syrians still reluctant to return
Any attempts by the Turkish government to repatriate Syrian refugees, whether it be stick or carrot based, will almost certainly not proceed smoothly.
Last summer, a UNHCR (United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees) poll of around 2,800 Syrian immigrants living in neighbouring countries found that less than 8 per cent intended to return to their homeland within 12 months, and less than 30 per cent expected to do so in the next five years, citing security concerns.
Forcing the refugees back across the border from Turkey in a mass deportation operation would not only go against international law, but would anger the UN and EU whose member states are generally reluctant to deal with a greater influx of immigrants.
Meanwhile, any proposed incentivisation - such as the promise of education, new homes and healthcare infrastructure - is practically impossible to guarantee due to Syria's ongoing domestic volatility.
Besides, Syria's readmission to the Arab League, while undoubtedly a positive step for Damascus, does not mean Assad can expect to escape the crush of Western sanctions any time soon and Arab countries are therefore unlikely to make any real investment there.
And to top it all off, Syrian opposition groups may be emboldened to launch fresh attacks as a statement of defiance in light of Assad's re-acceptance in the eyes of the Arab world.
All this means that, sadly, whatever happens in Ankara this month, there is little hope that the fate of the 3.7 million Syrians holding onto hope in Turkey will improve any time soon.